The War in Ukraine
43 watchers
Dec 2022
8:36pm, 31 Dec 2022
2,140 posts
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Muttley
And to you Sir. I shall raise a glass this evening to Putin's demise and Russia's defeat.
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Dec 2022
10:19pm, 31 Dec 2022
9,362 posts
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Northern Exile
Absolutely 🙂 За наше здоровье!
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Jan 2023
2:07pm, 2 Jan 2023
2,146 posts
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Muttley
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Jan 2023
9:02pm, 5 Jan 2023
9,368 posts
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Northern Exile
Over the holiday period, a pedal-powered Christmas tree became the symbol of Ukraine's defiant resistance against Russia's relentless bombing campaign which Vladimir Putin hoped would spoil everyone's Yuletide. Usually the Orthodox church would celebrate Christmas on January 7, but a decision was made by the Ukraine church to give its parishes the option to mark the festival on December 25, as a way of breaking from the Russian Orthodox church, which has been a vocal supporter of Putin's war from the beginning. Russia has been trying, with some success, to target Ukraine's power grid, putting many basic services from healthcare to sanitation at risk. But while this has resulted in blackouts across the country at the coldest time of the year, on the whole the country still appears as defiant as ever. And, as Stefan Wolff – an expert in international security from the University of Birmingham and regular contributor to our coverage of the conflict – writes, there are plenty of reasons for Ukraine to be cautiously optimistic. Much of the territory gained by Russia in the first months of the war has been recaptured in Ukraine's autumn counteroffensive. The visit by Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to Washington in December yielded a pledge of an additional US$1.85 billion (£1.5 billion) in security assistance – including, significantly, American Patriot air defence systems, which will give Kyiv the capability to strike targets insides Russia if it chooses. Meanwhile a missile strike against Russian troop concentration area in Makiivka, close to Donetsk in eastern Ukraine on New Year’s Day is reported to have dealt another severe blow to Russian military morale. But Wolff also warns that Russia is far from a spent force and, with the prospect of further mobilisation in coming months, there is – sadly – no end in sight for this tragic and illegal conflict. Ever closer to Nato Looking back to this time last year, when the Russian troop build-up near the Ukraine border was fuelling fears that an invasion might be imminent (despite Putin's repeated assertions to the contrary), one of the Russian president's repeated claims was that a right-wing (even neo-Nazi) cabal which had seized power undemocratically was steering the country towards Nato membership. This, Putin insisted, was in breach of an agreement that the western alliance would not expand into what Moscow considered to be its traditional sphere of influence. The "special military operation" was partly launched to prevent that. If that was indeed a Kremlin war aim, it has misfired dramatically. Kristin M. Bakke, a professor of international relations at University College London, and a team of academics from the US and UK have been taking opinion surveys in Ukraine for some years and have monitored people's views towards the west in general and Nato in particular. Between 2019 and October 2022, Bakke writes, there has been a massive swing in the number of people in Ukraine who identify with the west, while support for joining Nato has risen from 44% to 77% – the highest level ever recorded. And, while in 2019 the majority of people favoured Ukrainian neutrality, this situation has been reversed by eight months of conflict. These trends are most strongly reflected in the views of respondents between the ages of 18 and 30, more than 70% of whom disagreed with the statement that it would be “best for our country’s security to be neutral and stay out of military alliances”. Hearts and minds Meanwhile, what appears to be a deliberate attempt by Russia to target Ukrainian schools will also do nothing to win the hearts and minds of the country's young people. As Katja Kolcio an expert in education at Wesleyan University in the US writes, more than 2,500 schools have been damaged by artillery during the war. Kolcio, who has been conducting research in Ukraine since the Russian incursions in 2014, believes this is of a piece with what she sees as a deliberate campaign to weaponise education. She notes that when Russia occupies a city or town, one of the first things it does is forcibly replace the curriculum with one that is in line with a Kremlin agenda of erasing Ukrainian history while teaching children to identify with Russia. But if Kristin Bakke's surveys are anything to go by, this might prove as futile as Putin's aim to prevent Ukraine from moving ever closer to the west and Nato. |
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Jan 2023
10:20am, 11 Jan 2023
2,173 posts
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Muttley
This is an interesting view of Russian propaganda spreaders and it tallies with what I see as I watch Russian programmes: twitter.com Disclosure: the speaker is an old friend and former colleague. And btw, his book "Russia's War on Everybody" is well worth a read. |
Jan 2023
8:34am, 15 Jan 2023
20,581 posts
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richmac
Sending Chally 2's to Ukraine. Political gain aside what do we think? Not sure 12 MBT will turn the tide. Where are they coming from, think they are mothballed following downsizing? It's could be considered a bit of a perverse experiment by NATO who know how C2 compares to M1/Leopard/Le clerc etc but what about against T72/80. We're about to find our I guess. As are the Russians. Also, the risk what about if/when one is captured, suddenly Moscow has a fuck load of R&D gifted to them. My ex RTR friend who's son followed in his dad's footsteps reports that current crews only concern is that Ukrainian tankers may disgrace their wagons and wouldn't mind getting to grips with Putins lot themselves. |
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Jan 2023
11:23am, 15 Jan 2023
2,178 posts
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Muttley
My hunch is that this is more of a gesture than a real contribution. A dozen or so won't make the weather but they could soften up the others to send Leopards. I'm no expert on tanks but I can't see the US giving Abrams because of the extra logistical requirements. But we really should be giving Ukraine all it needs including long-range strike weapons so it can hit back. |
Jan 2023
3:42pm, 15 Jan 2023
37,604 posts
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LazyDaisy
I read in the Times, so who knows if correct, that this from the UK is designed to encourage the Germans and French ( can't remember if it *was* the French) to contribute too, making a more worthwhile contribution in total.
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Jan 2023
4:53pm, 15 Jan 2023
20,587 posts
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richmac
Agree that LD and Mutley. A nudge to other players is needed, Leopard 2 and 1's seem to be the most readily available MBT, used by several countries currently, think the Le clerc has been exported less. But, the presence of C2's whittle be like the Turpitz in WW II wouldn't it. A thing so powerful that they have to react to it. I'd also place a decent bet that the Ukrainians will be mocking up as many CH2 profiles as possible. |
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Jan 2023
4:09pm, 21 Jan 2023
2,186 posts
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Muttley
The lady has the right idea  reddit.com |
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