The War in Ukraine
43 watchers
Oct 2022
8:40am, 11 Oct 2022
1,909 posts
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Muttley
Yes, that's broadly it. One can claim some translator's licence when dealing with expletives 
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Oct 2022
8:33am, 12 Oct 2022
1,910 posts
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Muttley
Yup. He's right you know. Especially what he says about Russian public opinion. smh.com.au |
Oct 2022
10:48am, 12 Oct 2022
9,179 posts
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Northern Exile
Brilliant article, some wise words there. Interesting to see that the Russians have "arrested" several people overnight in connection with the Kerch' bridge bombing, seems that five of them were Russians. In other news, here's an article that gives a depressing forecast: Superforecasters from the world renowned Swift Centre say the risk of a Russian nuclear attack is small but very real, according to the I News site. Asked whether a nuclear weapon will be detonated in Europe as an act of hostility before the 30 April, 2023, the median average answer from the superforecasters was 9%. One of them gave a likelihood of 20%. The Swift Centre is a group of respected forecasters who are asked to make predictions about future events. A series of setbacks in recent times has resulted in mounting speculation that Vladimir Putin will use a nuclear missile. |
Oct 2022
11:03am, 12 Oct 2022
19,961 posts
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richmac
That's a great piece, I was hoping that Russian public opinion was on the turn, seems it's vocal minority there. Hope the tide does turn though.
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Oct 2022
8:37am, 13 Oct 2022
19,969 posts
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richmac
Putin is utterly fucking it isn't he. Everything he does result in Ukraines position and prospects strengthening. He attacks written missiles, the West speeds up delivery is air defence and supply better air defence than planned. It's a master class in how to make countries resolute against you. What a dick. |
Oct 2022
4:00pm, 13 Oct 2022
4,837 posts
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Groundhog
A little light relief, quite funny. twitter.com |
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Oct 2022
4:29pm, 13 Oct 2022
1,911 posts
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Muttley
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Oct 2022
7:33pm, 13 Oct 2022
9,185 posts
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Northern Exile
The Conversation ..... Ever since Vladimir Putin sent Russian troops across the border into Ukraine, the role of the UN as global problem solver has come under scrutiny. Any attempts for meaningful action by the security council are immediately stymied by the fact that – as a permanent member – Russia can simply wield its veto. But resolutions voted on by the general assembly at least make for a good indication of where – broadly speaking – the world stands on the invasion. So when the general assembly voted last night on a resolution condemning Russia's annexation of the four Ukraine regions it was interesting to see who sponsored it, who supported it, who voted against and who abstained. Apart from Russia, only Belarus, North Korea, Nicaragua and Syria voted against. China, India, Pakistan, Iran and the states of Central Asia were among 35 countries which abstained. Which left 143 nations who voted in favour of the condemnation – the biggest vote of censure against Russia since the beginning of the war. The most worrying aspect of this, however, is that while there is clearly a consensus that Russia's invasion is a bad thing, there are deep divisions as to how to bring the conflict to an end. Stefan Wolff, an international security expert at the University of Birmingham – who has written here regularly since the start of the war – has identified a fairly unbridgeable rift between those countries who want Russia to withdraw from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and the areas it has occupied since 2014, and those who want to bring Ukraine and Russia to the table to negotiate. As you'd expect, Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has been firm in his insistence that there can be no negotiations until Russia has withdrawn from Ukraine completely. He is backed in that position by most western countries. Their thinking is that basing talks on the idea that Putin and Russia might be offered any concessions in the shape of territorial gains would set a disastrous precedent by effectively rewarding force of arms. Joseph O'Maloney, an international relations scholar at the University of Reading, has gone back over 20th-century history to give us an example of where a lack of international solidarity over Italy's conquest of Ethiopia in the 1930s led to a policy of appeasement which was to prove disastrous when dealing with Hitler's Germany. Meanwhile there are multiple examples of non-recognition of territorial conquest has held firm for decades, as in northern Cyprus. In light of these arguments, it's hard to see what the US president, Joe Biden, means when he says Putin must be given an "off-ramp". Rod Thornton, an international relations expert at King's College London, who served in the military and has lived in both Moscow and Kyiv, believes that, other than selling Ukraine short, there's little the west can do to provide Putin with a get-out clause he can sell to his own backers. Thornton sees Biden's words as both a signal to the Kremlin of the extent of the catastrophe Russia is risking and also a betrayal of the lack of options available to the US when it comes to de-escalation. Kerch bridge Meanwhile Putin continues to escalate. It's hard to imagine the Russian leader wasn't personally stung by the targeting of the Kerch bridge last weekend. The bridge was a project he had consistently pushed for and personally opened, driving the first truck across the bridge from Russia to Crimea when its road section opened in 2018. So he is bound to have taken it personally. But quite apart from that, writes Frank Ledwidge – a military strategist at the University of Portsmouth – the bridge is a key strategic asset for Russia, supplying its southern offensive. The severe damage to the bridge inflicted (we think) by Ukrainian special forces will seriously hamper Russia's war effort and put its occupation of Crimea at risk. Ledwidge sees Putin's decision to escalate by targeting civilians in Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities as a direct consequence of this setback. We also have this fascinating piece by Colin Caprani from Monash University and Sam Rigby of the University of Sheffield, both engineering experts, assessing the damage to the bridge. They look at how it could be made safe to use again, concluding that work of this scale will take time and cause a great deal of disruption. Putin's popularity sliding? Many observers are also interpreting Russia's decision to resume strikes against Ukraine's cities and civilian populations as an indication of increasing pressure being felt by Putin. Arik Burakovsky is a scholar of Russia and public opinion at Tufts University in the US. He is sceptical of opinion polls emerging from Russia showing continuing high levels of support for the war and for the president. Burakovsky says polls are now reporting that the most common emotions evoked by the war are no longer national pride but rather “anxiety, fear, horror” and “anger, indignation”. The recent mobilisation hasn't helped, as more and more families have or know someone directly affected by the conflict. And it's also worth noting that Putin's personal approval ratings have begun to fall. Meanwhile, if the draft hasn't helped Putin's ratings at home, it's hardly helping the Russian army in the field. Jack Adam MacLennan and James Horncastle, American scholars of national security and international relations, believe that shipping 300,000 reluctant and poorly trained and equipped conscripts into an already adverse military situation will further damage Russian morale and could also exacerbate their army's growing problem with shortage of equipment. Talking at cross-purposes One of the issues that has emerged regularly over the course of the invasion is that of language and the large number of Ukrainians who speak Russian as their first language. It was one of the justifications for the invasion used by the Kremlin which has taken this as a "proof" that Ukraine has always traditionally been a part of Russia. Certainly, in some part of the eastern provinces annexed recently by Russia, nearly half of the population uses Russian as its first language. |
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Oct 2022
7:51pm, 13 Oct 2022
19,973 posts
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richmac
'Stefan Wolff' bet he was born to be wild.. Sorry. Thanks for the sharing, glad to see analysis that suggests Russian support at home is on the wane. The call up, how's it being done? Entirely conscript units being thrown in (cannon meat) or being used to replenish existing? I see the latter as deminishing those units, making the experienced soldiers more likely to retreat because they know they have rookies on their shoulders and it's not likely to end well. |
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Oct 2022
8:42am, 14 Oct 2022
1,913 posts
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Muttley
Russian TV's spin last night was that the 143 countries backing the UN resolution condemning the annexations represent less than half the world's population. And most of them had been bullied by the US into voting for it. The problem with giving Putin a face-saver is that he will just bank the gains, regroup, and then come back for more. The only way to deal with him, as with Hitler, is through a conclusive defeat. We're in for hard times unless he's done for from within. And the successor may not be any better, unfortunately. |
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