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Sep 2023
9:11am, 6 Sep 2023
42,501 posts
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SPR
My guess is after the TT, Kuss will be feeling more hopefully that he can win, but on Friday no one can really help each other on the Tourmalet and I suspect that stage will go a long way to showing the real hierarchy in the race (accepting that riders can fade in the following days of course).
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Sep 2023
9:16am, 6 Sep 2023
2,841 posts
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Big_G
I would love to see Kuss win, but I think it’s too early to throw the team behind him yet. It seems Quickstep made a big tactical error letting 30-40 riders go up the road in stage 6, including 4 Jumbo teammates and a lot of GC contenders, and gain a lot of time. Of course Roglic and Vingegaard didn’t work much in that situation but Quickstep shouldn’t have let that break happen. I know they wanted to give the jersey away, but presumably not like that. If they’d have controlled the break more, or put a rider or two in there (I don’t think they had anyone in there, did they?), then Jumbo wouldn’t be in this situation with Kuss. If they’d kept it manageable, Remco could have leapfrogged Kuss yesterday.
Is Vingegaard still a threat or can we discount him?
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Sep 2023
9:24am, 6 Sep 2023
42,502 posts
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SPR
Agree Big G. The tactical error (as said in a few places) was announcing they wanted to give the jersey away and that meant everyone interested in breaks went for the break that day and Jumbo played it smart and got Kuss with three teammates in there which made it harder for QS to control. Note them doing that shows the trust they have in Kuss but also in Roglic and Vingegaard to hold their own with less teammates around to help.
Vingegaard is a threat because he's too good to let go so his attacks will be covered (wasting rivals energy). He was still looking ok on climbs before the TT so rivals can't let him go and also even if he wasn't, one good day from a rider of his calibre could swing things. The problem for Evenepoel as I see it is that he will have to cover everything. At least UAE can try Almeida and Ayuso (maybe even Soler) so one rider isn't overworked.
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Sep 2023
9:28am, 6 Sep 2023
42,503 posts
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SPR
Evenepoel's main weapon does seem to be to ride a tempo that others can't sustain. Not sure QS have the team to set the pace for him (although Jumbo or UAE may end up doing it). That does feel like his only hope here as he can't cover three way attacks IMO (and that's without the potential of UAE, Mas, Vlasov, someone I've forgotten getting involved).
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Sep 2023
9:32am, 6 Sep 2023
21,916 posts
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larkim
Kuss is a designated dom, Roglic and Vingegaard are not, they are protected riders.
The reward for his performance is that he is now protected
But this is my question - is Kuss protected or not? Day 1, absolutely not. But after gaining time unexpectedly, he's either earned the right to be protected or he knows he's only babysitting the leader's jersey.
Decisions out on the road will not be binary, even if there's a scenario where Jonas is effectively down-graded (and I'm not entirely certain that's the case, as his 3 week endurance is phenomenal). So a choice, in the end of a stage, between limiting losses for Kuss vs taking time back for Roglic may be finely balanced and Jumbo probably can't afford to split resources to try to achieve both as they'll be punished by Remco in all probability.
Yet both scenarios (Kuss limiting, Roglic gaining) might achieve the same overall objective - a Jumbo rider remaining in red. We can say they should just pick whoever is feeling stronger on the day, but that might not be entirely clear.
I do agree, Tourmalet will be where we will see things achieve some clarity - but that's precisely the sort of day where normally Kuss would be deployed to ride for his team (and then often end up only a short distance behind after delivering his team leader to pretty close to the top).
(Will admit I've not read / listened to many of the links!!)
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Sep 2023
9:40am, 6 Sep 2023
2,842 posts
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Big_G
I do think if Quickstep had controlled it more on stage 6, the discussions around Kuss wouldn’t have been so prevalent, if Remco was close enough that it was almost inevitable that he would have leapfrogged Kuss yesterday. In that situation, I don’t think there would have been any discussion about who was the leader in Jumbo, even if Kuss was still ahead in GC over his teammates.
But what a story if Kuss does it - Jumbo winning the 3 grand tours in a year with 3 different riders would be quite something. Casting my eye over to Tour of Britain, Jumbo are doing well in that too and currently leading, just confirming their depth to be doing well in concurrent tours.
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Sep 2023
9:42am, 6 Sep 2023
42,504 posts
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SPR
I already explained this protected riders aren't doms. In the Tour 2021, Roglic and Vingegaard were protected. They weren't working for each other until it was clear one was the rider that needed to be favoured. Protection doesn't mean all riders work for you and having multiple riders protected of course weakens your team from a helpers perspective. Kuss is not the main leader, that is Roglic and Vingegaard (and probably Roglic after yesterday). Kuss has a chance if he shows the right legs but sacrificing Roglic is obvious madness and Vingegaard is better as a card to play for now. Kuss as a card to play also makes sense for now.
Also you don't have to pick a stronger rider, the road shows the stronger rider.
And again I repeat, this works for Kuss so there's nothing to be worrying about.
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Sep 2023
9:45am, 6 Sep 2023
42,505 posts
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SPR
I'd love for Kuss to win, and I think his teammates will as well. Roglic specifically keeps mentioning it and mentioned it before the race I believe.
If a situation appears on the road where it causes a problem to have three leaders then we can criticise but at the moment it's only brought benefits.
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Sep 2023
9:50am, 6 Sep 2023
42,506 posts
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SPR
Sorry meant 2022 Tour in 42,504.
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Sep 2023
10:09am, 6 Sep 2023
21,917 posts
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larkim
I still don't think it is tactically wise to sit on the bus in the morning with the DS saying "OK, the plan for the day is for one of you three to be in red; hope that's clear, off we go". Not when the situation, as we have it at the moment, is an unusual one with one of the three options (and arguably the "weaker" of the three, certainly the one who came in not as a team leader) is leading with their main rival 1 min behind and the other main two options behind that.
They should have a Plan A (and I bet they do really) - which will have an eye to allowing them to play the other cards if necessary, just to ensure that they don't make a poor decision on the mountain that wastes some time or resources.
We shall see, we shall see!
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So who won the tour from 1999 to 2005
May 2024
