24 Jan
6:10pm, 24 Jan 2025
23,505 posts
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rf_fozzy
The only way for Trump to stay past his current term-end would be a coup d'etat, because as of 20th Jan 2029 he is no longer president by law. That means the US military must stop obeying his orders on that date - *even if no elections are held.* That is automatic and there is nothing he can do unless there is a change to the 22nd amendment. That requires 2/3 congress and 3/4 of the states to agree. Given that ~1/2 the house, ~1/2 the sentate and ~1/2 states are reliably Democratic voting, it would have to be an extremely odd circumstance that would allow a highly controversial constutional amendment through in these polarised times. |
24 Jan
6:28pm, 24 Jan 2025
33,611 posts
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Johnny Blaze
Just as well he would never be bold enough to execute a coup, eh?
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24 Jan
6:34pm, 24 Jan 2025
46,895 posts
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SPR
Yes, as I read it, the amendment says elected twice. If he's impeached he can't be elected a third time. The two year thing is about taking over mid-term and it says you can only be elected once in those circumstances. There is a rule that if you're ineligible for president you can't be vice president and there seems to be some debate about whether that applies here but I'm surprised it's not clear cut. |
24 Jan
6:34pm, 24 Jan 2025
7,298 posts
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paulcook
It's alright. All his footsoldiers are safely in prison. Oh ... To be fair, that's about the best explanation of the whole charade I've read. (Coup it is though!) |
24 Jan
6:48pm, 24 Jan 2025
5,786 posts
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J2R
I would love to be reassured by this stuff about what the law says. But Trump does not believe the law applies to him. If he has sufficient 'troops' who share that view when the time comes, he will make an attempt at a coup. Except, of course, it will not a be a coup, it will be an attempt to stop him being ousted by the deep state.
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24 Jan
6:58pm, 24 Jan 2025
7,299 posts
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paulcook
All this is assuming we even get through the next 4 years.
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24 Jan
7:36pm, 24 Jan 2025
46,896 posts
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SPR
The law is what means the army will step in if he tries. Obviously that's not the best outcome, but it does mean he won't succeed. If he somehow gets the army on side, then that changes everything (it how most coups happen after all). @larkim you're talking a hypothetical, while I'm discussing the current amendment. I don't think allowing a third term because you had a gap makes sense. Going on to hypotheticals, you need to come up with a reason to allow more terms. Two terms makes some sense as it allows some longer term planning. If you've done well enough over the two years, the next person (who could be your vice president) can continue your work with some modification so it seems like the perfect balance given the reasons it was put in place in the first place. |
24 Jan
7:55pm, 24 Jan 2025
1,708 posts
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Fenners-Reborn
I notice that Trump and his followers are trying to claim that 'native' North American Indians, are immigrants. #unbelievable
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24 Jan
8:51pm, 24 Jan 2025
26,470 posts
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larkim
I'm not suggesiting I've got a personal view about 1, 2, 3 terms etc. Though I do have a theoretical view that longer term governments can deliver on longer term projects. But the thought of Trump going for more than 2 terms is abhorrent! The existing amendment will not get overturned, that's pretty straightforward. The 2/3 congress + 3/4 states rule simply means it is out of the question. I'm not sure why it's even being properly discussed, it's just an attention grab by an idiotic US politician. And Trump won't stage a coup either. He'll be desperately unhappy about leaving office, and if the next govt is a Rep one too he'll be very influential. But that's about the max extent of reality. |
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24 Jan
9:08pm, 24 Jan 2025
46,897 posts
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SPR
Sorry I meant the current resolution that's been tabled doesn't make sense. As has been said the insurrection attempt happened once so I don't see how we can say the same can't happen again, it's just unlikely to succeed. |
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