Nov 2020
10:51am, 18 Nov 2020
12,276 posts
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rf_fozzy
Re: Florida, the polling average before the election had Biden 50.9, Trump 48.4, so Biden +2.5 The certified results finished Trump 51.2, Biden 47.9, So Trump +3.3 So a 5.8% error which *is* relatively large and so does suggest something wrong with the polling there. |
Nov 2020
11:13am, 18 Nov 2020
24,104 posts
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Johnny Blaze
The amount of conspiracy theories being peddled on social media in the US is quite overwhelming. Depending where you look it is getting quite prevalent in the UK as well. I wandered onto the Talk Radio FB page by mistake last night. Some of the stuff on there is frightening and looked to be getting towards the majority of replies.
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Nov 2020
11:17am, 18 Nov 2020
16,926 posts
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Chrisull
Florida was a horrible polling error. Some of the reasons have been assessed there, which is Latino men swung hard for Trump, and the polls didn't have enough of them represented on their surveys. I think the ongoing problem is there are certain demographics and usually quite "Trumpy" demographics who don't do online polls, don't answer their phones and don't respond to requests for surveys. If you can't poll them, (you can guess their responses sure, but that's likely to be inaccurate), then there is always going to be polling error. And the biggest challenge might be actually realising you are missing a substantial chunk of particular demographics, which don't show up until the results are in!
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Nov 2020
11:20am, 18 Nov 2020
24,105 posts
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Johnny Blaze
m.facebook.com So many people prepared to believe Trump over, erm, literally hundreds of thousands of people who are committed to work towards a fair and legal count... |
Nov 2020
11:58am, 18 Nov 2020
3,237 posts
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J2R
An important point to recognise is that no recounts are taking place in states Trump won. There could be thousands of 'mislaid' votes there, too, and it's just as likely that these would have swung things to Biden. JB, yes, the mystery to me is that millions and millions of people in the States will simply believe what Trump says, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. He can simply make things up on the spot and they will all believe him. There is probably literally nothing he could say which would be questioned by his supporters. How is it ever possible to make headway against that kind of mass delusion? |
Nov 2020
12:06pm, 18 Nov 2020
36,479 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Have you seen the expression "MSM" in social media, often referred to fact deniers of various persuasions and blaming it for bias against whatever their crazy view is? I originally thought MSN as in Microsoft news, then thought no, maybe it's some left leaning niche newspaper or TV station or website. But no, it stands for Main Stream Media. I.e. Every credible news outlet that checks its facts and publishes its sources. The only source they will believe is: * Pals or groups in Facebook / Instagram / insert other social media sources * Niche websites or "news" publications that match their view Almost impossible to argue against. And presumably a high percentage of these types of supporters. The only way to combat it is probably using same tools: A charismatic, loud (visible) character, prepared to use money, time and influence to create their own message. No need for it to be corroborated by fact (thought it could just happen to coincide with facts, truth, science etc.) but as long as it's populist, loud and simply delivered, it might get through. I'm afraid that's the "post truth" world we are living in. I think. 
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Nov 2020
12:07pm, 18 Nov 2020
36,480 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
*referred to by fact deniers...
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Nov 2020
12:09pm, 18 Nov 2020
12,601 posts
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JK *chameleon*
Don't forget the "Lamestream Media", and the "Brexit Broadcasting Company". Social Media has given these numpty viewpoints a place to flourish. |
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Nov 2020
12:09pm, 18 Nov 2020
36,481 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Same could have been said of Brexit or any other populist, single issue, UK campaign. Ironically, Kanye West, Lewis Hamilton, Chris Packham, Greta Thunberg etc. may be more successful political operators in our country's and our world's political futures, I think? |
Nov 2020
12:15pm, 18 Nov 2020
20,040 posts
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DeeGee
They don't trust any media, HG. They *all* do their own "research". Never publish their findings for peer review though, they tell you their hypothesis before telling you to go off and *do your own research* too. |
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