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May 2022
2:17pm, 5 May 2022
5,994 posts
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Pothunter
30 is the new 40. I heard somewhere recently that the points required for survival each season in the premier league has been goinhfg down year on year. I have not checked it out, but it will not surprise me. As a Norwich fan I am looking forward to when 20 points are required. We may have a chance then!
The linear trend from 1995-96 (when the PL dropped to 20 teams) to 2020-21 is slightly down. Only 3 teams have been relegated with 40 or more points in all that time (none since 2002-03). 4 teams have survived on 35 or fewer.
The average points score for teams in 18th place (ie last one relegated) is 35.23
The average for 17th (ie just survived) is 38.15
The last 5 years have brought the 18th average down with 34, 33, 34, 34 and 28.
Closest finish was 2007-08 where Fulham survived on 36 with -22 gold difference while Reading went down on 36 with -25.
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May 2022
2:17pm, 5 May 2022
5,995 posts
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Pothunter
^^^assumes I’ve typed the figures into Excel correctly of course 
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May 2022
2:22pm, 5 May 2022
6,975 posts
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bigleggy
Anyone watch The Rise and Fall of the Super League last night ?
Loved the sarky ending when it said the greedy 6 got a huge points deduction, huge crippling fines and had the structures of the clubs altered to stop them trying again - NOT !!!
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May 2022
2:39pm, 5 May 2022
19,198 posts
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Chrisull
Brentford are safe. Their points/GD advantage is called Christian Eriksen.
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May 2022
2:58pm, 5 May 2022
4,558 posts
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trumpton riots
Chris, perhaps giving that amount of credit to someone who has played less than 700 minutes, scored 1 goal and had 2 assists is being a little disrespectful to the other Brentford players this season?
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May 2022
3:25pm, 5 May 2022
19,200 posts
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Chrisull
They've all been great it seems Toney, Mbuemo, Janssen etc, but Eriksen is the cog, they were on a hugely bad streak, and they absolutely dismantled Chelsea. Central mid is always the most important position on the park IMO, and the midfielders who often do best don't show on goals/assists. (Look at Ngolo Kante)
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May 2022
3:27pm, 5 May 2022
2,111 posts
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stuart little
40 points doesn't feel safe yet...
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May 2022
3:34pm, 5 May 2022
11,196 posts
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lammo
It's going to be a tense month for sure with a few ups, down and surprises still to come i'm sure
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May 2022
3:37pm, 5 May 2022
25,340 posts
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TROSaracen
West Ham went down with 42 in 2003. We would have needed another 2 points and a decent 6/7 swing in GD to have survived.
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May 2022
3:41pm, 5 May 2022
16,406 posts
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Cerrertonia
My reason for highlighting Brentford (rather than Southampton or Villa, who're obviously not mathematically safe either) is that their last two games are Everton & Leeds and those could well be 6-pointers. Although, I suppose the same argument could be made that Villa have to play Burnley twice (and they also have Liverpool & Man City).
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