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8 years is quite likely for Trump. The thing is that Obama has laid the groundwork for quite a lot of growth in the US economy in the next couple of years. A bit like here when Blair came to power, did nothing different in the first year or so apart from taxing pension plans and then took the credit for economic growth. Because in the USA they have invested instead of been austere the economy may do very well and that could get him in again in four years. Sad but true.
He got in as insurgent, promising some sort of vague 'change' against the ultimate 'establishment' candidate and water cannoning impossible promises about to back that up.
Many of those that voted will expect change, and their own 'vision' of it - whatever that may be - to be delivered. The American system is brutally difficult to actually deliver change (think of the battles over Obamacare; and that Obama promised to close Guantanemo but never did) so he'll disappoint most of those.
Finally, surely the Democrats will be able to rustle up a candidate better than Hillary (and will have the further advantage of not being incumbent - very hard to argue for change of any sort when your party has been at the helm for 8 years).
Apart from his protectionist instincts, economically he may not be terrible as others suggest - although how he squares finding the budget for these things with his low tax regime is another matter.
Socially will be his biggest issue - an empowered white group set against growing social unrest and pressure from extreme conservatives to wind back much of the progressive legislation (including potentially Roe vs Wade). Trump may not really give too much of a damn about those things, but his small fingers will be forced to be over them one way or another...
Interestingly, I noted that Charlie Mullins seems to have changed his position on Brexit. The self-made man, entrepreneur and all-round tory boy, who set up Pimlico Plumbers has for a long time made a name for himself as a "if I can do it, anyone can and anyone who is poor is just not trying hard enough" kind of guy. He regularly puts up banners on his HQ by the railway near London's Waterloo station stating his opinion on political matters. In the past he has been a big advocate for brexit. Today, his banner reads "Brexit: no one voted for being poorer!". It seems that even someone as entrenched in his position has finally realised that we could get royally shafted by a bad/no brexit deal. It is a shame that many of the other 52% didn't realise that this was a possibility before the referendum. Oh well, we are stuck with it now...no use in complaining I guess.
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Politics
Feb 2025