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Dec 2020
1:12pm, 4 Dec 2020
12,880 posts
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❄larkim❄
My only query really is how much difference they make to someone at the top of their game.
Agreed that Berlin 2015 vs Berlin 2018 would evidence something changing - nonetheless, I don't see the improvement as being necessarily down to the shoes, especially if in 2015/2016 Nike was starting to put prototypes on their elites. The WR was a thing of beauty in terms of his effortlessness etc, no disagreement there.
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Dec 2020
1:24pm, 4 Dec 2020
32,381 posts
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SPR
I think it's obvious that most of the improvement is shoe related. Berlin 2018 is crazy as no one that saw that would think that's the fastest he could go. A negative split like that would mean that he could definitely have run faster.
It's been discussed previously that athletes respond differently but IIRC there was some word out if Nike that Kipchoge was a high responder which would make sense since he was the sub 2 project basically.
BG's point about runners not being machines is a good point as well.
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Dec 2020
1:25pm, 4 Dec 2020
1,038 posts
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SKR
BG London Marathon 2020 certainly proved he wasn't a robot and susceptible to outside factors like the rest of us.
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Dec 2020
1:35pm, 4 Dec 2020
370 posts
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Big_G
SPR, I agree with you that the shoes are making a big difference in the times. I think it is obvious really, just when you see the amount of time being knocked off in a relatively short time frame. I think the only thing I may differ to you is wondering if some of the other shoes may also provide the same (or similar) benefit. I think we don't know for sure about that yet, but it may be that some of the other crop of current shoes are as good. We may never really know as Nike probably hoover up the majority of (not all, by any means) the elite runners.
SKR, yes, as we all know there are so many variables which we probably do not know the answers to in the case of Kipchoge. Was his training exactly as he wanted? Did he have a niggle we weren't aware of? Did he get enough rest (I imagine sponsors are clamouring for his time these days)? Was he just not "feeling it" on the day? Was the weather to his liking? Was it a quick course? Did he have an argument with his wife that morning?! I'm sure elites go through all those things just like enthusiast amateurs do. And even if he was in totally tiptop shape, that's not a guarantee for anything on race day in any case.
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Dec 2020
1:44pm, 4 Dec 2020
12,881 posts
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❄larkim❄
I suppose what I can't quite reconcile is my "fanboi" approach that says EK is the best of all time vs the evidence of fast times in non-VF shoes which are very close to the threshold of 2 minutes advantage.
Would he "just" be the Olympic and Big City Marathon winning GOAT without the VFs? Above everything else, it's his consistency which shines through.
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Dec 2020
1:48pm, 4 Dec 2020
3,296 posts
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J2R
Given the variation in response from these shoes, I'm kind of hoping I may be an outlier with a big enough boost (maybe around an hour) to make ME the GOAT, in fact. Just haven't tried them yet. 
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Dec 2020
1:49pm, 4 Dec 2020
72,330 posts
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Gobi
Larks - you doubt Hallie ?
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Dec 2020
3:07pm, 4 Dec 2020
12,883 posts
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❄larkim❄
98% no. 2% yes, same with Bekele. The era was just rife with it.
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Dec 2020
3:17pm, 4 Dec 2020
32,384 posts
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SPR
BG - I don't think we disagree on whether they might be as good. I think we disagree on what might means in the sense that I say they might but until it's proven they aren't. I agree that other than a scientific study, it may be hard for them (apart from possibly Adidas) to prove that, which is an unfortunate consequence of Nike's dominance.
Larkim - Kipchoge's appeal to me was always his racing anyway and the only other marathon record holder on that list that was also the best marathon racer is Kipsang (yes I know about the asterisk currently). Wanjiru was my favourite marathoner in his time again due to his racing.
Gobi/ Larkim - I think Larkim may admit that was his "fanboi" approach getting the better of him, given he usually likes evidence for doping allegations.
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Dec 2020
3:32pm, 4 Dec 2020
12,884 posts
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❄larkim❄
I think it's as likely that HG doped as it is that EK dopes, and SPR is right that I am usually very defensive of anything which suggests doping purely on the basis of speed alone. I've got no choice but to trust that HG, EK, KB etc are clean, and I'm happy to stick to that. But if there is a cloud of EPO hanging over performances, it hangs over the 2000s more than it does over the 2010s (IMHO!).
I was just really making the point that it is possible that the records of the early 2000s could have been doping influenced; and actually if that's the case, and if we assume that today we are "clean" then what they are achieving in the VFs looks even more astonishing, and thoroughly undermines whatever I might be waffling on about!!
HG ran 2:03:59 and that was bettered by just over a minute by Kimetto without the shoes. Kipchoge has bettered that record by 1m18 and has the VFs. If Kimetto can beat HG by a minute without any external advantages, is it that unreasonable to expect that EK could beat DK's time by a similar margin without external advantages?
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