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Dec 2020
11:57am, 4 Dec 2020
12,876 posts
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❄larkim❄
It's Kipchoge's relatively small improvement on the non-VF world record which makes me sceptical about the real impact of the shoes. There could equally be other factors at play - I wouldn't want to besmirch Haille, but his WR was set at a time when it would have been easier to EPO dope and get away with it.
Kipchoge ran 8s outside the WR in London 2016, pre VFs. He improved that time by only 28s in 2019. His WR is "only" 3 seconds per mile faster than his pre-VF times; is it completely unreasonable to consider that those 3s/mile were at least in some part due to him being fitter / better?
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Dec 2020
12:09pm, 4 Dec 2020
32,372 posts
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SPR
Larkim - I'm not getting your analysis at all, the shoe effect is obvious given that Kipchoge was well established and has baseline performances from before the shoes.
He ran 1:20 faster than the old WR. If someone broke the mile record by 3 secs everyone would be amazed. Also did you see how he ran that 2:01:39?
BTW Kipchoge was in prototypes in London 2016 IIRC.
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Dec 2020
12:13pm, 4 Dec 2020
4,219 posts
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K5 Gus
I can't remember those actual races, but they're not time trials, they're races, so in the latter one perhaps there was an element of just trying to beat the others and not to do an out and out pb ? ie is there a bit of the Bubka going on ? Break the WR but don't break it by too much, otherwise you're possibly losing out on future WR cash bonuses.
Weather, ie heat or wind, can obviously play a part
etc, etc
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Dec 2020
12:24pm, 4 Dec 2020
32,373 posts
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SPR
They were pretty much all set up for WRs as that's what Berlin does.
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Dec 2020
12:28pm, 4 Dec 2020
32,374 posts
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SPR
...and I don't think anyone really believes that runners were previously holding back by 2:20 to 1:20 just because...
The explanation is right in front of you, lol.
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Dec 2020
12:32pm, 4 Dec 2020
12,877 posts
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❄larkim❄
My analysis is that on the London course, he gained 28s between being a pre-VF runner and a post-VF runner. We don't know if that is shoe or runner related, and we can't know. I doubt he was less fit in 2019 than in 2016, but if the 2min figure is correct in 2019 he was 1m30 less capable as a marathoner and that was masked by him wearing VFs. Does that stand up to scrutiny?
On the WR time, if he truly is the GOAT he also was apparently less fit in the Berlin race than he was in the London 2016 race because the shoes bought him 2min and even a faster course didn't give him 2mins advantage over his 2:03:05 in London.
Was 2016 EK's fastest year? Or do the shoes produce less advantage than the quoted 2min? If he had been wearing VFs in London 2016, would he have run 2:01:05?
I don't doubt for a minute that they are faster shoes, but I do have reason to question what the level of significance those gains actually are by reference to EKs pre and post VF times.
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Dec 2020
12:54pm, 4 Dec 2020
32,377 posts
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SPR
You'd have to watch the London races to ascertain that. 30 secs is easy enough to put down to racing.
Anyway as I said, I think Kipchoge was in prototypes at London. He definitely was in the Olympics.
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Dec 2020
12:57pm, 4 Dec 2020
32,378 posts
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SPR
Do your analysis ignoring London and only based on Berlin...
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Dec 2020
1:10pm, 4 Dec 2020
369 posts
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Big_G
I just think there are so many factors that it's impossible to pin down a time based on one thing - the shoes.
I know he's an elite, but he's not a robot. You can't stick him on a start line and predict what will happen as there are so many variables.
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Dec 2020
1:11pm, 4 Dec 2020
32,380 posts
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SPR
Ignoring the raw numbers, the question about whether Kipchoge is past his best is intriguing. He's run 15 marathons since 2013 with only one 'bad' one. There used to be number quoted for good marathons in a career which I can't remember but presume Kipchoge has exceeded. After a long career on track as well.
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Nike Pegasus
Jul 2024