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Aug 2019
3:36pm, 20 Aug 2019
8,118 posts
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simbil
Some Leavers rightly worry that the longer it takes, the more likely we simply won't leave at all. So no deal at the end of October is appealing on those grounds, because at least we leave that way.
I'm not sure we are any closer now despite BoJo's bluster though.
He's making no deal seem real in a way that May didn't, but it doesn't change the fundamental fact that it would primarily be an act of self harm and everyone knows that - the leaver MPs know that, the EU negotiators know that, the onlooking Americans know that. Which makes it all a bit of a pantomime, or is it a Greek tragedy where everyone is hoping for a Deus Ex Machina?
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Aug 2019
3:40pm, 20 Aug 2019
8,342 posts
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larkim
Agreed, the point is that there is a difference between the Utopian world of a no deal Brexit where leaving without a deal was the plan, it was clearly communicated to everyone, and was known 18-24 months ahead of it happening.
Vs
The real world where the no deal exit has bubbled to the top as being the current most likely outcome and there are only 10 weeks left to fix anything that hasn't already been put in place to address the change happening.
Brexiteers, it seems to me, still believe that the first position is where we are, hence accusations of having their heads in the sand, etc etc. Whereas if they were more honest and recognised that we are where we are, perhaps there could be a rational conversation about the size of the challenge, or even agreement that we delay for 12 months to an intentional "no deal" state - and therefore plan / implement appropriately.
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Aug 2019
3:57pm, 20 Aug 2019
2,192 posts
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J2R
Yes, we could leave the EU without it being a complete disaster, but it would take a lot, lot longer than anybody has been talking about - a decade, maybe - to unentangle us. We have been working as part of a seamless whole in the EU for a long while now., and that's the issue. Leaving cannot be done quickly without being a disaster. If done more slowly, gradually, it would still leave Britain a little poorer in all ways but would not be such a shock.
Stander says: "I still think that in the long term leaving is best for the UK. No, it isn't going to be easy, but it isn't going to be the Armageddon that the naysayers in here think." That might be a fair position to take - not all worthwhile things in life are easily achieved. Where Remainers like myself have problems with this, though, is that we cannot see any worthwhile benefits of leaving, let alone any which would be worth the pain and anguish leaving (especially without a deal) would entail. If we could, we'd maybe judge it a price worth paying, but we keep asking and get nowhere. Why put ourselves through any kind of difficulties at all if the country is just going to be worse off at the end? What are we gaining?
I suspect at the heart of it there are just different, irreconcilable perceptions of what the EU is. For Leavers, the EU is 'Them', a malign, powerful organisation trying to control us from which we need to break free, at whatever cost. For Remainers, the EU is 'Us', a partnership of countries, in which we are a key player, working together for mutual benefit.
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Aug 2019
4:20pm, 20 Aug 2019
18,789 posts
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DeeGee
The "Them" vs "Us" is so apparent in the facile Leaver's comment of choice, "If you love the EU so much, why don't you move there?", to which, of course, the only correct answer right now is "I live there already!"
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Aug 2019
4:24pm, 20 Aug 2019
18,790 posts
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DeeGee
These are the same people who shout at me, a car owner, to "pay road tax", when I'm riding my bike, totally incapable of recognising that drivers and cyclists can actually be the same person.
Or that "won't eat any vegan muck" seemingly oblivious to the fact that, unless their entire diet is cheese-covered honey-roasted meat fried in butter, a large amount of what they eat is vegan.
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Aug 2019
4:43pm, 20 Aug 2019
8,344 posts
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larkim
Or "Sun readers" as they are more colloquially known...
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Aug 2019
4:53pm, 20 Aug 2019
32,227 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
But taking away the other person's (unnecessarily) aggressive language (which I accept a lot of the arguments do tend to become), their points are theirs and they are reasonable.
In your examples, if I correct
 "If you love the EU so much, why don't you move there?" becomes "If you love the EU so much, why don't you move [to continental Europe which will continue to be in the EU post Brexit]"
 "pay road tax" to a cyclist becomes "pay [additional] road tax [for the additional facilities for cyclists that I am not using but you are]..."
 "won't eat any vegan muck" becomes "won't [be made to] eat [only] vegan ..."
All of which we can disagree with (I'm a cyclist, veggie, half German, so I'm unassailable!) but shouldn't just laugh at. Reasonable views to hold and to debate about, not to dismiss, surely?
I think the problems will be more than just economic and will get worse before they stabilise. If Brexit is managed as well as possible, the pain will kick in after 1 year, get worse in 2-5 years, and maybe stabilise (on a continuing downward trajectory) for 10 years or more. We just won't be able to operate as "efficiently" on the global stage as we did. But we'll be independent decision makers, which is what matters most to some.
My concern is more about the cultural isolationism. The normalisation of anyone who is not British as "them". Initially sneering, then blame, becoming jealousy and hatred. Not everyone. Not of all people. But more and more. And anything that generates more hate strikes me as a bad thing.
But that's just a guess and a fear on my part. Hopefully it won't be so.
Back to real politick - we have 2 opposing views here among Remainers of "No Deal is so crazy it just won't happen" to "All opposition is fragmented and badly organised and can't cooperate to form a credible alternative, so No Deal is inevitable." I can't remember who to attribute them to - was it fozzy and jda or the other way round? Please can someone reconcile? (P.S. The right answer to make me feel better is No Deal can't possibly happen - sense will prevail err..." Thanks! G
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Aug 2019
4:59pm, 20 Aug 2019
9,034 posts
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rf_fozzy
No deal can happen. And it will be a shitshow.
The country won't suddenly slide into the ocean, but there *will* be shortages, there *will* be panic buying and people *will* die because of it.
We also *will* be worse off both immediately and long-term.
Because for all the mitigation that is put in place, there are some things that "no deal" means you cannot necessarily mitigate against.
David Henig has pointed this out, amongst others.
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Aug 2019
5:06pm, 20 Aug 2019
5,005 posts
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jda
My view is that brexit is so crazy/impossible it won't happen. No deal not happening at the end of Oct is just a consequence of that.
Some may laugh, but they laughed at Bozo the clown...no, that's not what I meant to say.
Some may laugh, but my prediction (which I made back in 2016) has already been demonstrably more accurate than the vast majority of pundits, politicians and experts on all sides, who spent a good 2 years talking about our exit from the EU last March being a fundamental immovable truth, and only started considering any alternatives in the final weeks leading up to that date. Exhibit A: May's 108 times(?) that she promised we were leaving on the 29th March. Exhibit B: the BBC's Nick Robinson asserting that there were no longer two sides for the BBC to consider, way back in April 2017. How is that viewpoint ageing, Nick? Exhibit C: everyone here who was panicking about no deal being inevitable right up to Feb or March 2019.
I'm used to predicting reality, which has a habit of doing its thing irrespective of what the politicians, pundits and experts would prefer.
I do accept the possibility that I will be proved wrong. Brexit is not formally impossible. It is however unlikely in the near future. However, being unlikely is not good enough when I want to sign a contract for 5 years that depends on being in the EU, so I have to move the business even while expecting us to remain members.
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Aug 2019
5:11pm, 20 Aug 2019
29,035 posts
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SPR
Road tax doesn't exist.
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