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Nellers
Nellers
3 Mar
10:57am, 3 Mar 2025
44,796 posts
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Nellers
Was it on here or the Status thread that we were talkign about the race predictors?

Before my parkrun on Saturday I was being told 25:01. I ran (with the help of a very encouraging pace) 24:59, so that estimate was bang on.

Based on me managing a 24:59 it's now predicting that I could run 24:25, which is ludicrous!
Velociraptor
Velociraptor
3 Mar
11:03am, 3 Mar 2025
74,048 posts
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Velociraptor
I'm getting 23:33 for 5k when my best benchmark for this year is 25:05.
Big_G
Big_G
3 Mar
11:20am, 3 Mar 2025
4,590 posts
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Big_G
My 5K and marathon predictions are pretty good on the watch. It’s saying 20:33 for 5K (I’ve done 21 at a parkrun, and know I could go quicker in an all tarmac race) and 3:28 for marathon, where I did 3:31 recently.

What I don’t know though is if its predictions make use of any race goal times that I put into the watch. Or are its predictions all based on whatever metrics it captures? Does anyone know?
SPR
SPR
3 Mar
11:59am, 3 Mar 2025
47,198 posts
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SPR
@Nellers I presume all your HRs were in the normal zone for you for a 5k? My presumption about predictions is it's based on an expected percentage of HR/VO2 Max for the effort so if it thinks you might be able to dig deeper 25 secs (based on the measured distance) isn't lots to find but will be wrong if you were in your normal zone.

@Velociraptor prediction on the other hand doesn't make much sense given the watch is supposed to be telling you current shape.
SPR
SPR
3 Mar
12:02pm, 3 Mar 2025
47,199 posts
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SPR
It definitely doesn't use race goals which TBH makes sense as goals aren't going to always align with your capabilities. Metrics (which is basically VO2 Max performance adjusted for training load) and recent performances to improve accuracy of that (as of the September update) are what it uses.
SPR
SPR
3 Mar
12:07pm, 3 Mar 2025
47,200 posts
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SPR
This page hasn't been updated to mention the addition of recent performances to race prediction calcs but gives a good summary of how it works pre the addition of that.

firstbeatanalytics.com
Nellers
Nellers
3 Mar
12:36pm, 3 Mar 2025
44,797 posts
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Nellers
@SPR Interesting question about "normal" when doing a hard 5k.

I've done 3 parkruns on consecutive weekends and gone faster each week, mainly due to having a bit more confidence in what I could do, but also probably due to having got 3 more weeks of runs done.

They're the first parkruns, or hard runs of any kind, in about 18 months.

Consequently there's not a lot of data to establish what "normal" should be really.

I'm only running a couple of times a week and I've only been doing that since just before Xmas, but doing that alongside 3-4 rowing sessions, 2-3 swims and some time on a stationary bike when I feel like it, so central cardio is good, run-specific cardio is less so!

It recorded me as 62% in "threshold" and 35% in "maximum" based on what Garmin calculated my zones at, so it's not surprising but I don't really know what "normal" would actually be these days.
SPR
SPR
3 Mar
9:08pm, 3 Mar 2025
47,203 posts
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SPR
@Nellers are you saying you're not sure what HR you'd expect to run for 5k? The %MHR looks fine to me but your HR dropped in the last 2 km so can see why the watch thinks you have a bit more in you. I can't imagine running 3 weeks of 5ks being at my best either but everyone is different.
Nellers
Nellers
3 Mar
9:16pm, 3 Mar 2025
44,798 posts
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Nellers
I'm more saying that with the good general fitness but limited running my legs won't carry that pace through the whole of a 5k (yet)! Yes, the HR dropped a bit for the last 2k because my legs had gone completely.

I guess in theory if I managed that pace for the 3km and my HR wasn't spiking then I should be able to hold that pace to the finish but not off 2 runs a week and such a limited run background.
SPR
SPR
3 Mar
9:28pm, 3 Mar 2025
47,204 posts
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SPR
Not quite completely as you picked it up at the end 😉...

but understand what you mean and makes sense.

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