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Economics

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HappyG(rrr) Jan 2022 10:17am, 19 Jan 2022 41,063 posts	Quote Pin HappyG(rrr) Like Glenn, I don't think interest rate rises by central banks will be a very effective tool, because price rises are largely driven by fuel costs globally, not UK based price increases on consumer goods. The economy isn't "hot" led by consumer demand. Hmm. Gonna be a tough couple of years. G
HappyG(rrr) Jan 2022 10:18am, 19 Jan 2022 41,064 posts	Quote Pin HappyG(rrr) I asked this in the Politics thread but they're too busy talking about Westminster gossip. Any economists have a view? Is near 100% employment rate a good thing? Sounds like a good headline but doesn't it mean problems in getting people for businesses, pressure on wage inflation etc? UK unemployment sown to 4.1%. Scotland is 3.6% Lowest figures I can ever remember? G
Dooogs Jan 2022 10:28am, 19 Jan 2022 8,103 posts	Quote Pin Dooogs HG - my gut feeling is three things: 1) The ideal unemployment rate isn't zero for the reasons you mention - a rate of somewhere between 0 and 5 percent is probably ideal, as long as anyone who wants a job can pick one up very quickly. 2) Not sure if those figures are the right metric to use - the unemployment rate should be the % of people without a job who would like one, not the % of people who are currently claiming UB. 3) Anecdotally, one of the problems with hiring recently has been some businesses wanting trained staff immediately and not being willing to invest the time and effort into training them. Falling unemployment does suggest that those firms may be biting the bullet, though.
lammo Jan 2022 11:32am, 19 Jan 2022 11,019 posts	Quote Pin lammo I agree with Glenn and Happy on the impact of UK interest rates rises and their impact, but now may be as good a time as any to continue the return to normality, which i think will be 2-3%
lammo Jan 2022 12:48pm, 19 Jan 2022 11,022 posts	Quote Pin lammo This would support the argument that inflation is not currently caused by UK spending or consumers. bbc.co.uk
lammo Jan 2022 11:41am, 31 Jan 2022 11,058 posts	Quote Pin lammo Not my usual source but: theguardian.com Could be a rough few months for some as costs continue to rise and income declines
lammo Jan 2022 11:49am, 31 Jan 2022 11,060 posts	Quote Pin lammo bbc.co.uk Looks like it'll be happening in the US in March, and in NZ shortly too
Bazoaxe Jan 2022 12:24pm, 31 Jan 2022 21,943 posts	Quote Pin Bazoaxe I keep a spreadsheet of income and bills and was having a wee look yesterday and builidng in what I thought will happen with energy and other bills rising, NIC reducing take home pay and also hoping there may be a modest salary rise. there will need to be some belt tightening (and not because I am overeating !)
Bazoaxe Jan 2022 12:25pm, 31 Jan 2022 21,944 posts	Quote Pin Bazoaxe which of course would be loosening so maybe tightening will be right if I compromise on food !
lammo Jan 2022 12:28pm, 31 Jan 2022 11,063 posts	Quote Pin lammo Hope you get your payrise Baz, and don't have to compromise on food too much