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Nov 2023
11:15am, 20 Nov 2023
3,786 posts
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paulcook
I've seen a chart of (current - might change presumably) probability of being drawn today.
If you're seven years in am I right in thinking you have 64 tickets, which suggests a 37ish% chance of being drawn out. Next 2 years would jump to 61% and then 85%. Unless my presumptions are wrong entirely it's so long since I properly looked at the regulations.
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Nov 2023
11:34am, 20 Nov 2023
28 posts
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mattykay
Yeah, might be a few years yet! It is an exciting thought though.
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Nov 2023
11:42am, 20 Nov 2023
3,787 posts
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paulcook
Then there's the reserve list ...
And I've no clue how that works especially if you're promoted 24 hours before race day when Gordie gives up his place again and you've got inadequate prep and on the wrong side of the Atlantic.
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Nov 2023
11:50am, 20 Nov 2023
29 posts
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mattykay
I think you can ask to be withdrawn from the reserve list if selected for that and still keep your credits for the next year
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Nov 2023
11:54am, 20 Nov 2023
3,788 posts
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paulcook
That makes sense.
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Nov 2023
11:55am, 20 Nov 2023
3,789 posts
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paulcook
Suppose you might need to weigh up the chances of how high on the list you are and the likelihood several people will definitely be promoted from it.
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Nov 2023
5:40pm, 23 Nov 2023
3,818 posts
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paulcook
Looks like 9683 applicants to the ballot. Comfortably a record.
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Nov 2023
6:52pm, 23 Nov 2023
30 posts
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mattykay
I read somewhere that if you start collecting tickets now, your odds of coming out ever are vanishingly small due to the expected additional number of people in the ballot each year with more and more tickets.
E.g. 32 tickets this year is 1 in 5 but last year was 1 in 4. I reckon they will need to change the system soon.
By the time someone starting now achieves 32 tickets, the odds for that then will be tiny.
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Nov 2023
8:21pm, 23 Nov 2023
3,820 posts
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paulcook
The number of entries has grown nearly every year. Not sure about Hardrock or Leadville but I've often seen grumblings about the lotteries for each of them, Hardrock especially. UTMB less so, and I think until the change in system you were guaranteed an entry within 2 or 3 years whatever.
I suppose these lotteries come with the quality/prestige of the race.
And you could perhaps argue it's fairer than the first come first served basis of some races.
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Nov 2023
8:30pm, 23 Nov 2023
18,819 posts
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NDWDave
Hardrock has separate lotteries so if you’ve already done it loads of times, you only have to wait a year or two for one of the 40 or so veterans spots assuming you don’t get in. If you’ve never done it, there are thousands waiting for one of the 60 or so “never” spots
Leadville has a lot of runners so I didn’t think it was too hard to get in?
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The Speed Project
May 2023