The Sub 3:15 Marathon Thread
1 lurker |
334 watchers
Sep 2017
10:03am, 25 Sep 2017
2,824 posts
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larkim
A bit of results stalking, doesn't look like Jovi ran on Sunday.
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Sep 2017
10:24am, 25 Sep 2017
3,927 posts
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clare1976
Hi all, yes, 3.28.38 for me with a 66 second positive split  I felt I ran a controlled race, using my heart rate and perceived effort levels to half way, then allowed myself to work harder up to 20 miles to maintain pace. I held it together pretty much bang on until 23-24 miles when it all began to feel too hard and hurt so it was just a case of putting one foot in front of the other to get to the end. Pace didn't drift off dramatically which I'm pleased about and my heart rate maxed to suggest I gave it my all. I certainly had nothing left at the end. If I'm honest, I had hoped that the effort I ran at would have translated into a touch faster pace-wise based on my training, but I know I gave it everything and ran a well executed race, and if that's the level I'm at right now then fine. I knew I was nowhere near PB shape which I why the pace was secondary to effort levels. Breaking sub-3:30 again was my only goal and to run a strong race, so achieved on both fronts. An enjoyable race in a fantastic city and it's certainly flat which suits me. But no more marathons for me now for a bit, time to get myself back to shorter distance fitness and ultimately bag another sub-90 HM next year. Very excited to continue to watch and see what WW, Bazo, :-)G, Larks and chunky and the gang all achieve over the coming weeks... some eye watering training and tune up races being notched up
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Sep 2017
10:26am, 25 Sep 2017
27,428 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Oh now, new calculator / tables, considerably lower c. 2 percentage points? mastersathletics.net Playing with that a bit, it seems was "worse" for the younger folk? - my 37:17 age 44 was 77.9% goes down to 76.0%. My 38:58 age 48 Fetch gives me 77.5% goes down to 76.0%. Is it a linear change? Anyone know?! G
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Sep 2017
10:54am, 25 Sep 2017
3,166 posts
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Windsor Wool
YES, I KNOW THIS IS NOT A PERFECT APPROACH SO PLEASE DON'T SHOOT ME! YOU ASKED!! I use this predictor here, the mileage / pace predictor bit: runcambridge.org.uk On the instructions for use it says that you should use the training from the last 8 weeks ahead of the marathon. I've found that if I ignore this and use the average mpw / pace from the 3 months ahead of the target marathon I get a very good fit to my own performance, it's been a bit optimistic if I use it for the final 2 months. I like the fact that both pace and training distance are brought in to the equation. It's an imperfect model, I believe that the statisticians say there's not really enough data in the set to make it robust but I can certainly pick out trends as I've got 10 data points of my own to overlay. The model breaks down at the extremes. It was miles off on UtRaB for instance who did a lot of miles quite slowly on his way to 2:39. Similarly, G is clearly going to run a looooong way faster than 3:31 at Chester!! I have my own little s'sheet that sorts the averaging out as you go through the months but otherwise you can just take the data you need from the summary page of the training log. Lark, CW as you asked (this feels a bit uncomfortable): 3:16, 3:24, respectively. My own prediction is currently at 3:00:29 but trending down as the effect of my low mileage July gets diluted. It's worrying though as last time out it predicted 3:00:41 for me and I ran 3:00:39. Agh!!!! Here's the latest update of my s'sheet (for me): |
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Sep 2017
11:02am, 25 Sep 2017
27,429 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Very good racing Clare. That's similar to what I'll be doing, trying to run a controlled race, but to get the best I can, from the shape I'm in currently. There is no point in thinking about where you were, only were you are. Very best of luck with picking up the focus on shorter race times. Again, exactly the same for me, but... the only thing I would say is that for previous 12 months when I *wasn't* doing marathons, I thought my half and 10K would improve. But actually, I think I'm doing better in my half and 10Ks with "marathon type" training (as others have said in here, our decent amateur level of marathon training is probably closer to what top level runners do for half and 10K and 5K training! So maybe it's not surprising). So... my approach for next 6-12 months will be to have marathons in the plan (and hopefully enjoy them!) but not as the target. Target is actually to try and get 5K, 10K and half times to improve, but just use marathons to force me to train "properly" (i.e. longer)! G
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Sep 2017
11:06am, 25 Sep 2017
27,430 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
Wow WW. Statto! Paul (tb) will be very proud! If I do 3:31, I'll be coming round your manor to give you a kicking (if I have any energy left after what would have been a disastrous outing!) (JOKE, in case it's not obvious!) I can do some trend analysis on my key runs - intervals, races, MP long runs etc. But I have to sift the data out of the morass of dog runs, support running with missus or pals, picnic type club runs in the hills, just forgetting to hit stop, etc! You lot must be incredibly diligent to capture only true, accurate running paces on your tracking devices. Impressive! G
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Sep 2017
11:12am, 25 Sep 2017
27,431 posts
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HappyG(rrr)
OK WW, questions/comments (and by the way Abingdon is Oct 2017, but I guess you know that!): * Why was Lon 2017 a 2:56 predicted? Was it the total miles PLUS the ave pace? Does the last month pace (i.e. the downward trend is better this year than that campaign) get taken into account? I'd agree, your progression looks best ever, but your predictor is worse than Lon 2016? Very impressive consistent improvement over 7 years by the way. G
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Sep 2017
11:33am, 25 Sep 2017
2,317 posts
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K5 Gus
Well done Clare, great controlled run WW, don't like that calculator, gives me 3:25 or 3:21 based on last 12 or 8 weeks :-(, think I fall into the HappyG camp in that I have some hill days that skews the average pace, even my "general" training is predominately trail with some elevation, so probably 10 or 15 secs/mile slower, but that's just a random guess. ps Initially I mis-read the instructions and though you put in your total mileage for the 8 weeks, not the average, so I typed in 420 miles, and it said I was on for a 2:22 marathon
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Sep 2017
11:37am, 25 Sep 2017
2,318 posts
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K5 Gus
Changing it to 60 mpw, at 8:15pace gives 3:10, which is probably around where I'm at
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Sep 2017
11:44am, 25 Sep 2017
2,825 posts
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larkim
Based on that website, and the last 8 weeks (ignoring my future 2 week tempos) - Distance/week: 46.5 miles Training pace: 0:08:03 min/mile Predicted marathon pace: 0:07:24 min/mile Predicted marathon time: 3:14:19 I'd take that. |
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