TCS London Marathon ballot - who's entered?

35 watchers
EvilPixie
EvilPixie
29 Apr
12:40pm, 29 Apr 2024
53,815 posts
  •  
  • 0
EvilPixie
is it 1:15?

so 55000 did it this year
you have ...
the professionals
the celebs
the GFAs
the clubs
the Gold Bond
the foreign entries
those who deferred
then the rest of us which is a much smaller number than 55000!
3M
3M
29 Apr
12:40pm, 29 Apr 2024
23,946 posts
  •  
  • 0
3M
Not me! Never (?) again!
Nelly
Nelly
29 Apr
12:59pm, 29 Apr 2024
4,415 posts
  •  
  • 0
Nelly
EvilPixie wrote:is it 1:15? ...


No.
Google suggests there are between 17-20k ballot places available in the draw. Assuming all of those places are available to UK applicants only (and disregarding the second draw. Presumably those places also come out of the same pot) then the chances of being successful are between 1 in 33 and 1 in 39.
DaveG
DaveG
30 Apr
3:41pm, 30 Apr 2024
427 posts
  •  
  • 0
DaveG
The bit on the site about paying upfront says: "If you don’t get a place in the main ballot, we automatically enter you into a second ballot and we will ensure that you will at least double your chance of getting a place through that second draw. "

I'm assuming it means 'double of your chance of getting a place through either draw', rather than 'triple your chance of getting through either draw by the second odd being twice as likely', but it could have been worded more clearly. Obviously, they can't know in advance how many people will pay upfront so will need to work out those odds now.

If the odds are 1:36, then the chances depend on how many people have paid upfront. It's only 1 person, they have a 1:18 chance and everyone else has 1:36 (it doesn't make much difference to everyone else). If everyone apart from 1 person has, all who paid have a 1:36 chance and the person who didn't a 1:72 chance.

I would guess it's possibly around a 1:25 chance if you paid upfront and around a 1:50 chance if you didn't (based on absolutely nothing). So the odds for those of us who didn't pay are probably very low.

Given that you lose nothing if you don't get the place, and gain a great experience if you do, then I'd rather enter a ballot with a 2% chance of getting in rather than guarantee not doing it by not entering.

Got something to say?

To join the discussion, sign in or join us.

About This Thread

Maintained by Velociraptor
I hope all the Fetchies running in London tomorrow have a great race. The 2023 ballot is open, the race is back to April where it belongs. Who's put their name in the hat?

fetcheveryone.com/races/london-marathon-4702812

Related Threads

  • london
  • marathon









Back To Top
X

Free training & racing tools for runners, cyclists, swimmers & walkers.

Fetcheveryone lets you analyse your training, find races, plot routes, chat in our forum, get advice, play games - and more! Nothing is behind a paywall, and it'll stay that way thanks to our awesome community!
Get Started
Click here to join 112,532 Fetchies!
Already a Fetchie? Sign in here